Time series behavior of the short-term real interest rates in industrial countries

With quarterly data of a sample period starting from 1973, the conventional unit root tests reject the null of nonstationarity in favor of the alternative of linear stationarity for short-term real interest rates (RIRs) of non-European industrial countries. There is evidence of nonlinearities in many European countries’ RIRs, most of which appear to be stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive processes.Real interest rates; Unit root; Nonlinear stationarity

Tolerating Correlated Failures in Massively Parallel Stream Processing Engines

Fault-tolerance techniques for stream processing engines can be categorized into passive and active approaches. A typical passive approach periodically checkpoints a processing task's runtime states and can recover a failed task by restoring its runtime state using its latest checkpoint. On the other hand, an active approach usually employs backup nodes to run replicated tasks. Upon failure, the active replica can take over the processing of the failed task with minimal latency. However, both approaches have their own inadequacies in Massively Parallel Stream Processing Engines (MPSPE). The passive approach incurs a long recovery latency especially when a number of correlated nodes fail simultaneously, while the active approach requires extra replication resources. In this paper, we propose a new fault-tolerance framework, which is Passive and Partially Active (PPA). In a PPA scheme, the passive approach is applied to all tasks while only a selected set of tasks will be actively replicated. The number of actively replicated tasks depends on the available resources. If tasks without active replicas fail, tentative outputs will be generated before the completion of the recovery process. We also propose effective and efficient algorithms to optimize a partially active replication plan to maximize the quality of tentative outputs. We implemented PPA on top of Storm, an open-source MPSPE and conducted extensive experiments using both real and synthetic datasets to verify the effectiveness of our approach

Interaction Between Supernova Remnant G22.7-0.2 And The Ambient Molecular Clouds

We have carried out 12CO (J=1-0 and 2-1), 13CO (J=1-0), and C18O (J=1-0) observations in the direction of the supernova remnant (SNR) G22.7-0.2. A filamentary molecular gas structure, which is likely part of a larger molecular complex with VLSR~75-79 km/s, is detected and is found to surround the southern boundary of the remnant. In particular, the high-velocity wing (77-110 km/s) in the 12CO (J=1-0 and J=2-1) emission shows convincing evidence of the interaction between SNR G22.7-0.2 and the 75-79 km/s molecular clouds (MCs). Spectra with redshifted profiles, a signature of shocked molecular gas, are seen in the southeastern boundary of the remnant. The association between the remnant and the 77 km/s MCs places the remnant at the near distance of 4.0-4.8 kpc, which agrees with a location on the Scutum-Crux arm. We suggest that SNR G22.7-0.2, SNR W41, and HII region G022.760-0.485 are at the same distance and are associated with GMC G23.0-0.4.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Evolutionary multiplayer games on graphs with edge diversity

Evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations has been extensively explored in past decades. However, most previous studies assume that payoffs of individuals are fully determined by the strategic behaviors of interacting parties and social ties between them only serve as the indicator of the existence of interactions. This assumption neglects important information carried by inter-personal social ties such as genetic similarity, geographic proximity, and social closeness, which may crucially affect the outcome of interactions. To model these situations, we present a framework of evolutionary multiplayer games on graphs with edge diversity, where different types of edges describe diverse social ties. Strategic behaviors together with social ties determine the resulting payoffs of interactants. Under weak selection, we provide a general formula to predict the success of one behavior over the other. We apply this formula to various examples which cannot be dealt with using previous models, including the division of labor and relationship- or edge-dependent games. We find that labor division facilitates collective cooperation by decomposing a many-player game into several games of smaller sizes. The evolutionary process based on relationship-dependent games can be approximated by interactions under a transformed and unified game. Our work stresses the importance of social ties and provides effective methods to reduce the calculating complexity in analyzing the evolution of realistic systems.Comment: 50 pages, 7 figure